Skip to main content

Probability and the Battery Cell

Image hosted by Photobucket.com "The human body generates more bio-electricity than a 120-volt battery and over 25,000 BTU's of body heat ..... What is the Matrix? Control. The Matrix is a computer generated dream world built to keep us under control in order to change a human being into this." - Morpheus, The Matrix
Prologue
Chris Andersen has written a
classic post about how the new systems of mankind - Google, Wikipedia and Blogs - follow the probabilistic principles wherein information may not accurate always at the micro level, but as the volume grows "it is likely to become more and more accurate" . Do visit the link.
Nick Carr makes the
humanist case against Chris by trying to build a hypothetical case that fascism is closely linked with the "collective wisdom" which these systems rely on. He even quoted science fiction writer Simon Ings: "When our machines overtook us, too complex and efficient for us to control, they did it so fast and so smoothly and so usefully, only a fool or a prophet would have dared complain."

My Thoughts
Probability and its ubiquity in nature is nothing new. Niels Bohr gave the probabilistic structure of the atom more than 80 years ago and even 150 year old Darwinian theories were based on similar thoughts and hence should be no surprise that the systems mankind uses to manage its own information and knowledge are probabilistic in nature [I am surprised why this didn't happen long ago].

Inopportunely these systems are often described and assumed as 'intelligent' by themselves. Quoting Chris "now we're depending more and more on systems where nobody's in charge; the intelligence is simply emergent". This leads thinkers (naive in mathematics, statistics and electronics) to believe that these systems have an inbuilt intelligence which can some day overpower mankind and human intelligence as a whole.

Clearly, all such fears are unfounded. All systems - whether probabilistic or deterministic, electronic or neuronic, automatic or manual - are ultimately fed, and run by Humans. The information on Wikipedia was not written by machines, neither does Google give you links to articles generated by gadgets. Humans are the soul of the probabilistic, automated, neuronic world which is emerging as a result of interactions between humans and systems.

What also comes out of Chris's explanation of these systems is that systems like the Wikipedia - clearly being probabilistic - cannot be considered absolute and "you need to take any single result with a grain of salt". Further, these systems become more and more accurate only when the number of contributors to them increases. All this points to a conclusion that none of these systems can exist without human intelligence being a part and parcel of them. It is Human intelligence which will ultimately decide whether the singular entry on Wikipedia is authentic, correct. The macro level probabilistic correctness of these systems will never replace the ability of human brain to decide between right and wrong, correct and incorrect at the micro level. Further, deterministic systems like Britannica Encyclopedia or Industry Journals will never cease - they will remain the sources of accurate micro level information.

Clearly, the human body can never be reduced to the status of a battery cell [as depicted in The Matrix].

Epilogue
A classic comment on Chris's post was
this.
I always think the best example of "Wisdom of Crowds" is the "Ask the audience" part of Who Wants to be a Millionaire. The crowd is almost never wrong. The people who don't know the answer make a random guess, but all the random guesses cancel each other out and you're left with the people who really DO know the answer.


More on Wikipedia's accuracy measBritannicast the Brittanica here.

Comments

  1. Thanks for displaying my company's product on your blog ;)

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

How will travel industry transform post-Covid

Unlike philosophers, journalists and teenagers, the world of entrepreneurship does not permit the luxury of gazing into a crystal ball to predict the future. An entrepreneur’s world is instead made of MVPs (Minimum Viable Product), A/B Tests, launching products, features or services and gauging / measuring their reception in the market to arrive at verifiable truths which can drive the business forward. Which is why I have never written about my musings or hypothesis about travel industry – we usually either seek customer feedback or launch an MVPised version and gather market feedback. However, with Covid-19 travel bans across the globe, the industry is currently stuck – while a lot of industry reports and journalistic conjectures are out, there’s no definitive answer to the way forward. Besides there is no way to test your hypothesis since even the traveller does not know what they will do when skies open. So, I decided to don my blogger hat and take the luxury of crystal gazing...

A Guide to Privacy on Social Media [apps]

The recent announcement by WhatsApp to update its privacy terms - and 'accept or leave the app' stance - led to an exodus of users from Whastapp to competing, privacy-conscious apps such as Telegram or Signal. A week after the exodus began, Whatsapp clarified its stance - and WhatsApp's CEO went about providing a long Twitter clarification . And then, many returned, many who considered moving stayed put on Whatsapp. This post is meant for those who are still sitting on the fence - it clarifies questions like: What is this all about? What do I do? Is Whatsapp safe? I've heard Telegram is Russian - so how is it safer than Whatsapp? I can't move because my business contacts are on Whastapp - how do I secure myself? PS: I've modeled this post based on several conversations I've had with friends and family on this subject, dealing with the chain of questions they ask, then objections they raise, then clarifications they seek - and finally the change resistance ...

Learning from 11 years in KPMG

It is only when we give up what we have is when we can embrace the new! I quit my job at KPMG one year ago - 22 January 2016 was my last day with the firm. As I reflect back on that day, it felt more like a graduation day! The eerie mix of nostalgia, excitement, anxiety and blues of missing your friends. KPMG was not just my first job but also a place where I learnt everything that I represent professionally. KPMG is one of the institutions I deeply respect and love – and relationships I have built here will stay with me for my lifetime. In my entrepreneurial career as well, I am often reminded more of all the great things I have learnt over my 11 years in KPMG. An year gone by, I realize these learnings have stayed with me and apply equally to the world outside KPMG. Almost all would apply to those working in role of (internal or external) consultants but several are generic and can be applied across professions. I have tried to change the text so that the learnings sound ...